Thursday, January 17, 2008

2008 Presidential Campaign (Old)

What do you think will happen?

38 comments:

Anonymous said...

Taking questions...

Christy said...

question: what is obama's general philosophy/ideas on things? a lot of kids our age like him and i'm curious to know what the draw is. frankly, i know nothing about him, besides the american flag thing, so... fill me in with what you know.

and if you two had to guess, who do YOU think will win the republican and democrat nominations?

Anonymous said...

You know. Of the three democratic candidates Obama is definitely my favorite, but he would be harder to beat in the general election than Hilary, so let's hope he doesn't win. I except he will.

In regards to his specific policy issues, I am not extremely versed. His main message is centered around the word "Hope." Clinton's would be "Experience." and Edwards would be "Expensive haircuts for the poor..."

In regards to the flag thing I was taking to a democrat who told me that the flag thing was a one time thing, were a camera man caught him with his hand down, so I am not sure what is factual with regards to the hand on the heart thing.

I do know this. He wants to pull the troops from Iraq, but in a measured way. He wants to hold talks with "enemy leaders."

more coming....

Anonymous said...

I'm excited aboutt his new addition and hope it will spark some enthusiasm from others. I've noticed there hasn't been much blogging in general of late.

And Eric, you've sparked my curiosity enough that I spent a while last night reading some Mitt blog put together (apparently) by his five sons. Does he have daughters?

Anonymous said...

P.S. A friend mentioned tonight that in this election there is an African-American running, a woman running, and a Mormon running. Guess which one gets all the discriminatory comments! A little ironic, huh? Especially when you consider the reasons why this country was originally founded. Can you imagine the backlash if someone were to mention gender or race in this election?!

Sometimes I wonder if we haven't time-warped back to the 1830's!

Briana said...

mom: nope just five sons

my love: I think that while I would prefer Obama over Clinton - Clinton will win. Also, with the flag thing - I watched a video that was through the whole anthem and his hand was down the whole time.

and I think that Romney and McCain will battle it out - deep down in my heart I think Romney will win

Anonymous said...

Mom, why is it ironic the black guy doesn't get discriminatory comments?...

Yes, Barak Hussein Obama is black, muslim, and a woman. I really think it is interesting that his name has "Hussein" and "Osama" in there.

I disagree with his policy issues, but he seems less slimy then Hilary and Edwards.

One thing I think is very interesting about Obama is that he sounds very much like Martin Luther King when he speaks. He is a very strong speaker.

Totally off on how to run the country. He would be able to get both sides of the "aisle" together to back policies that would be destructive to our society.

On the surface of my heart I know Mitt will win, may the force be with him.

Interesting note: Poll of Florida (the only one since Michigan's win) says Giuliani 21, McCain 20, Romney 20. If Romney can win there, I would say the nomination is his. It is important he win Nevada this Saturday and Huckabee give McCain a run for his money in South Carolina.

Anonymous said...

Yes, I'm kind of surprised that Obama gets votes with that name. On the other hand, maybe that's Mitt's problem. I mean who wants to have a president with the name of Mitt. It would always remind you of baseball and you woud always be dissatisfied. It's too cold to play. You have to work and can't play. Maybe you just don't have a ball. Much better to be reminded of 9/11!

Well, hey, that makes as much sense as a lot of other stuff I've heard!

Christy said...

very interesting discussion here folks...

now that mitt won... whatever state that was...michigan? i think he has a better chance of winning. for some reason i have a hard time believing that a mormon could really win though. it seems like there's still too much distrust/confusion about what we actually believe. but it'd be awesome if he did!

and about obama... maybe people aren't as worried about obama being black and hilary being a woman because these things really don't affect their ideas or politics (that much anyway), where as religion definitely could. i think religion defines us a lot more then our color, so i can understand why people might worry more about mitt IF they believe our religion is wierd.

the end.

ps- as i was reading over the comments, i realized to someone just looking at this we sound racist. i know ya'll aren't, but it's just funny to think about from an outsider's perspective.

Anonymous said...

I saw an interesting video clip on Romney's sons blog. It was from a camp meeting in New Hampshire, I believe. Anyway, it followed a debate there, and the commentator asked the group how many had come in support of Romney. About three people raised their hands. Then he asked how many would support him after having heard him, and the entire room raised their hands. He comes across so well.

If he doesn't win because of idealogical differences, okay. But if he doesn't win because of prejudice against his religion--completely inaccurate prejudice, I might add--wow. How sad. And that is what I fear will happen.

Anonymous said...

Totally agree about race being a non-issue, however I do think that a woman might govern differently. Most people doubt Hilary really is a woman.

I think Huckabee is the weirdest name of all.

By the way Chris, I am racist.

Anonymous said...

Mom, interseting clip isn't it. I do think that religion is playing a major part here, but much greater is the media's successful portrayl of Romney as dishonest. A man who will say anything to get elected.

Anonymous said...

I was listening to some political commentator this morning that says that Obama's strategy is to say as little as possible about everything. Thus he passes himself off as likable, and no one can really disagree with him.

One thing that is interesting is that may people will say, "I am for Fred Thompson, but Obama is my second choice." These two guys have NO common policy whatsoever. It is a really interesting phenomenon.

As Christy pointed out he has very strong young adult appeal, and is seen as young, but is older then Bill Clinton was when he was inaugurated.

Anonymous said...

Here are good sources for polls, election results.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/republican_primaries.html

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#R

Anonymous said...

Nevada and South Carolina tomorrow. I personally heard Fred Thompson say he will drop out if he doesn't do well in South Carolina tomorrow. His policy positions most closely match Mitt's, so we will see if he endorses him. He is really good friends with McCain from the senate, but thinks he is way to liberal, so it will be interesting to see what happens.

One poll has Romney winning Nevada by 15 percentage points!

If he gets at least 3rd in S.C. that will be thought of as good for him, fourth behind Thompson would be more questionable. We will see.

Anonymous said...

I just came across this interesting article, written in 2005 about Mitt and the role religion would play in his candidacy. She called it well, I think.

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/features/2005/0509.sullivan1.html

Anonymous said...

So now that Nevada and South Carolina are in, what do you think? Romney took Nevada by a landslide, but came in 4th in S.C. McCain's looking strong, I think. And Florida is winner takes all. All of a sudden we're playing for the big bucks.

Anonymous said...

Well, Saturday's Elections certainly make the race interesting. There are some things that make it difficult to know what will happen.

Fred Thompson. Thompson said repeatedly this last week if he wasn't first or a close second in South Carolina he would drop out, so he is dropping out, although he hasn't officially announced it. Thompson is a long time senate friend of McCain, but his consession speech yesterday did not indicate he would endorse McCain, but that he would probably endorse Romney if anybody. Thompson and Romney have been closest in terms of policy and really are the only true conservatives. The rest of the candidates in the race have at least some decidedly liberal views.

Giuliani - Social issues, abortion, civil unions...
Huckabee - Raises taxes, steal from the rich to give to the poor. We have to take down the evil CEOs and give to the rednecks... Along with he thinks he is the Savior in political office and needs to forgive all of the criminals and set them free, so long as they have "accepted Christ in their heart."
McCain - pretty much the only thing he is conservative on is Iraq, although Michigan exit polls indicated that anti-iraq peps voted for him, while pro-iraq voted for Romney.

So,... after that rant...Thompson endorsing Romney would be huge. I think the other more damaging thing is what I would call the Huckabee factor. I think that after losing in South Carolina he will no longer be seen as a viable candidate and his backers will be looking to support Romney or McCain or possibly Giuliani. Unfortunately Huckabee has practically endorsed McCain in a very odd number of speeches. It seems McCain and Huckabee truely loath Romney, and would do anything to destroy him. If you get a chance listen to Huckabee's consession speech from S.C. It is truly nausiating. Basically he says, I wish you would have voted for me, but I am etherial you choose McCain over Romney. Never have I seen a loser so praising of the winner. I think he is applying for the VP job now, and this could be potentially damaging.

So obviously Florida is huge. The first winner takes all state with 57 delegates at stake, and the last primary before super Tuesday. I think Romney will win, but let's look at the different senarios.

Giuliani 1st, McCain 2nd, Romney 3rd Huckabee 4th. This isn't a bad senario, but would mostly split future vote between Rudy and Mitt, which could be potentially damaging, but it would take away some of the momentum McCain has. Romney in second would be much better.

McCain, Romney, Giuliani, Huckster. Big boast for McCain, Giuliani and Huck drop out, and it becomes a two man race. McCain would likely do well in the Super Tuesday states, but true conservatives would rally around Romney no matter their differences to keep liberal McCain out of the white house. Possible road to November.

Romney, Giuliani, Huck, McCain. Romney would completely dominate the rest of the race and demolish Hilary in November. All Mormon's wouldn't have to pay taxes!

Anonymous said...

Figure this out.

South Carolina - 24 delegates, McCain 33%, Huck 31%, McCain 19 delegates.

Nevada - 34 delegates, Romney 51%, Ron Paul 14%, Romney only 18 delegates????

Anonymous said...

New Poll out today from Florida (the important state...)

Romney 25
McCain 20
Giuliani 19
Huckawee 13

For those who think it is impossible.

This is the only poll taken after Saturday's Elections

Anonymous said...

New Florida Poll with the numbers reversed. McCain 25%, Giuliani 20, Romney 19.

Anonymous said...

Looks like it's going to be a nail biter! When is the Florda election?

Anonymous said...

Uncle Bill sent this link to the Rasmussen Reports survey, which has Romney leading in Florda.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/florida/election_2008_florida_republican_primary

Christy said...

holy comments!

go mitt in nevada! we were very excited! i hope he wins florida as some of the polls show that he will.

i just wanted to share an interesting link with you guys as this post originally started with talking about obama. it talks about him supposedly not putting his hand over his heart during the pledge of allegiance. i was glad to get this cleared up as i've heard the rumor circulating for quite some time.

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/fact-checker/2007/11/obama_nabbed_by_the_patriotic.html

so we may or may not agree with him politically, but he's not satan. :)

Anonymous said...

Another interesting forward from Uncle Bill (sorry this is so long!) It's the transcript from a talk show discussing the media bias against Mitt.

I heard this on the radio this morning, and my wife got the transcript from
the website. Here is Glenn Beck's discussion about media bias and Mitt
Romney. . . . . .Excellent observation. Check out the statistics that are
apparently disturbing the media.


Mitt & the Media
[Insider] Audio also available online:
January 21, 2008 - 12:43 ET
GLENN: The media bias, it just kills me. In the book -- and thank you so
much for making the book now number 3 on the New York Times list. We're over
two months we've been in the top five of the New York Times list. Still
can't get the New York Times to review it or anyone else to review it but it
doesn't really matter. I mean, it's so irrelevant now. We're coming up with,
we're approaching like half a million books sold and it's incredible and
it's all because you just passed it on from one person to the next but
talking about media bias, we talk about it in the book.
The best example of media bias that's going on right now is -- and I don't
know if anybody else has known this. It's sometimes difficult to understand
how the media covers the news, especially when you're in the media, how they
pick and choose the news. It's, especially around election time. It's very,
very interesting. For example, how do they know which primaries are
important? Glad to know that. Seems to me that some are extraordinarily
important and others, even when it's a close race, barely even worth a
mention. Why is that?
Apparently we do have some sort of a rule developing
here that I just don't understand. The truly important primaries are the
ones that Romney doesn't win. Iowa's important, Wyoming isn't. New Hampshire
is important, despite the fact that Wyoming has more delegates than New
Hampshire. New Hampshire is also more important than Michigan, which also
has more delegates and where more people voted than all of the other
primaries combined. South Carolina is important but Nevada isn't, even
though Nevada once again has more delegates and the fact that Nevada is
apparently important to the Democrats. Are you following me so far?
This is the new rule. It's very hard, but once they put it up in a chart with just a
slogan, if Romney wins, it's not important. You mark my words. Florida is
suddenly not going to be important. Story line goes that Michigan just
rewarded Romney because he's their state's favorite son, although he left
the state when he was a kid, something that McCain pointed out before the
vote. This guy has no ties here, he left before he was a kid. Then during
his concession speech McCain said that it was nice of Michigan to reward
their favorite son, something that he said before the election wasn't true.
And that line of thinking because John McCain said it, immediately adopted
by the media. Nevada, however, is a different story. I mean, it's obvious now.

This is what they're reporting. It is obvious that Romney was going to
win, wildly expected, spent so much money. Romney was the man to win, wildly
expected. Really? It was? That's weird. Six days, six days before the caucus
in Nevada, it was a 4-point lead for John McCain. By the way, that lead was
not over Romney. That lead was over Giuliani. Romney was not only behind
McCain at 22%, Giuliani at 18%. He was also behind Huckabee at 16%. Romney
in Nevada, six days before the election at 15%. Some polls had him with a
lead but nothing like the 51/14 win he wound up pulling off, Ron Paul coming
in second. Now, does this give him any momentum? Of course not. People today
are saying if he doesn't win Florida, he should drop out. Of course not.
Why? Because the Nevada win was all about Mormons. Did you know that the
state has 9% Mormons is this so 0 that 9% gave him the 51% lead, that 9%
did. All the Mormons that came out to vote for Romney, of the Mormons, he
won the Mormons. He made the Mormon vote. It's absolutely true. The problem
is Romney also won every other religion. All the Catholics that came out, he
won all the Catholics. All the Presbyterians, he won all the Presbyterians.
All the Baptists, he won all the Baptists. In fact, Romney won every single
demographic category of the 67 exit polls measured except for three and most
of them by a very wide margin. The three he lost, Ron Paul won the
independents. Ron Paul won the one with no stated religion and Ron Paul also
won the all important white atheist category. And if you can't capture the
white atheist category, well, Romney won every other single category.
Now, obviously you can attribute some of the reaction to tradition and not some
anti-Mitt Romney bias. South Carolina has picked the nominee for the last 25
years. I get it. But let's put things into perspective here. Romney
shouldn't be dropping out of Florida. Even if he loses Florida. Which, by
the way, a new Rasmussen report, a new poll out just today, you'll find it
on the front page, shows Romney now ahead in Florida. It was a three-way
tie. McCain, Giuliani, all about 18%. It now shows Romney. Everybody else
still at 16 and 18% and Romney at 25% in Florida. So he should definitely
drop out of Florida.
This guy has momentum despite what the media is doing to him. This guy
has momentum despite all of the candidates ganging up on him. He's run
the most consistent campaign against the early states with his
worst finish in a close race for 3rd with Fred Thompson in South Carolina.
His worst finish was third place. And yet the messenger of change is John
McCain and Hillary Clinton. My goodness, I just, I just don't understand that.
--

Anonymous said...

Well, may all people know that I ALWAYS put my hand over my heart during the National Anthem.

Anonymous said...

Florida is a week from today. Jan. 29th

Anonymous said...

The bias is truely ridiculous. Amazing he is doing as well as he is with the media trashing him every day.

I have read two reports about the race in Florida which are of course between Giuliani, McCain and Huckabee, and maybe that Mormon flip-flopping Romney since he has so much money and might buy his way in...

I do think they are going to have a hard time excusing away Romney winning Florida.

Anonymous said...

New Florida poll today.

Romney 24
Giuliani 19
McCain 18
Huckster 12

Anonymous said...

WAHOO! Go Romney!

Going back a ways in our discussion, there's a comment I've been wanting to make. The issue of race, gender, religion being issues came up--and my comment is that OF COURSE all those things--and everything else a person experiences--are going to affect that person's presidency. Would being woman affect my leadership? Of course! Would my being a mother affect my leadership? Of course! Would my being a cowgirl from Wyoming affect my leadership? Of course! Obama's race will affect his decisions. Did I say that he would make bad decisions because of it? Not at all. But to assume that your background doesn't affect you is ridiculous. Would Hillary's gender affect her decisions? Absolutely. Are we implying that they would be worse because she is a woman? No! Just that it will influence her. And yes, Romney will be affected in his decision-making by his religious beliefs. As will Huckabee and everyone else. In fact, I think whether some is short or tall will affect their leadership in some way!!! Maybe they'll vote against discrimination for short people because they know what it's like not to be tall. I don't know. Anyway, my point is that we shouldn't try to homogenize people, but get to know them as they are. The composite. Black, white, red, green, tall, short, male, female, religious or not, and choose the whole package we want to represent us.

Anonymous said...

I agree with you mom. 5 New Florida polls out today.

McCain 23
Romney 22
Giuliani 18
Huckster 16

Romney 27
McCain 23
Giuliani 20
Huckster 15

Romney 30
McCain 26
Giuliani 18
Huckster 13

McCain 25
Giuliani 22
Romney 20
Huckster 18

McCain 25
Romney 23
Giuliani 15
Huckster 15

Average for the day

Romney 24.4
McCain 24.4
Giuliani 18.6
Huckster 15.4

Anonymous said...

So it's going to come down to who offers people on the street free brownies and a ride to the polling booths? Sounds like a job for all those Latter-Day Saints with vans :)

Anonymous said...

I just spent the last hour or so reading from the link Christy sent about the Obama hand-over-heart thing. Lots of eye rolling and head shaking--as well as some good laughs--later, my thoughts are unchanged. So it was the National Anthem instead of the Pledge. So what? As a man running for the highest office in the country, he oughta know better.

Briana said...

agreed mom.

Go Romney Go! You can do it!

I heard some fox news commentators say that they thought Mitt Romney was the winner of the Florida debate last night - they said he sounded confident and did very well.

This is getting kind of long.... maybe we should start a new post.... :)

Briana said...

"Eric is so cute... k-k-o-t."

By Briana

Briana said...

That was for you babe ;)

Anonymous said...

This is long... new format required.

Anonymous said...

I just didn't think anyone would actually post.